Football is a popular sport not only among fans, but also among bettors. Hundreds of millions of deals for football matches are carried out around the world every year. At the same time, bettors constantly continue to make banal mistakes in betting.
In today’s article, we will analyze the popular mistakes in betting on football matches.
Inflated performance expectations
Almost every novice bettor is sure that when two effective teams that know how to play from the attack will meet, there will be an effective duel with breaking the standard total of more than 2.5 goals. However, as the results show, in such matches the teams act as carefully as possible, trying to keep their own goal intact.
The performance indicator is inherent exclusively to teams that know how to play from the attack, but consistently conceding goals, even with outsiders. Only when such teams meet, with additional analysis, you can bet on total more. In other cases, only the total is less – the first option for further consideration.
Obviously, in the next fight, the coaching staff will focus on defense, trying to negate the opponent’s chances of scoring.
It is enough to look at a number of such fights. For example, Manchester United versus Manchester City or Barcelona versus Real, where the bookmakers set odds of 1.35 for “both scores” for each subsequent game, and the base total is 3.5. In such situations, it is much more profitable to bet less on total than to hope for an effective match.
Bets on the next team victory
Quite often it happens that a particular team is constantly achieving success, winning in each subsequent fight. However, no one considers the secondary factors that influence such results:
- Lack of matches in European cups;
- Lack of fights in local cups;
- The presence of key players in the squad;
- Sufficient rest time (minimum 5 days).
If one of the above factors affects the next fight, then you should not consider the victory of the chosen team. With a high degree of probability, the team will be defeated, or will play a draw, due to the lack of physical condition for the next game.
Additionally, we note that in addition to physical strength, football players also have a factor of emotions and a psychological aspect. For example, the average team confidently dealt with two opponents in a row on the home field. The next match is away, against an equal team. And the bookmaker, taking into account the last two victories, making the guest team the minimum favorite. However, in such a match, there is a high probability of losing points, since the home team is much more confident in gaining points than the away team, even taking into account the latest results.
Rehabilitation of a strong team after defeat
It is also a common stereotype in which bettors willingly place a bet on a specific team, taking into account the last defeat or loss of points. This is especially true of failure in the home arena against a weak opponent. At first glance, it seems that a strong opponent will necessarily rehabilitate himself in front of his own fans, having won the next match. At the same time, the bookmaker also takes into account such an indicator, placing lower quotes after the previous defeat. However, it is more likely that the club will again lose points in the next match.
It should also be borne in mind that a strong club is able to win, but the victory will be minimal for the team. In such cases, it is important for the bettor to play from the outsider, taking into account the state of the favorite and the scanty odds set by the bookmaker.
Defeat of the favorite before the match in European cups
This aspect is especially true for playoff matches, when each team is focused on winning the cup. At the same time, the club also has unresolved moments in the national championship, where losing points would be an unjustified decision.
In such situations, the coaches of the clubs play for the result in the national championship, overshadowing the matches in the European cups. However, bettors do not take into account the fatigue of the team, betting on winning the playoffs of the cup. But, as often happens, after a difficult fight in the championship, the team enters the field tired, not showing their own maximum.
Of course, this aspect does not apply to hegemons in national championships. For example, the conditional PSG or Bayern Munich will easily release the second squad for the game in the national championship, without fear of losing points, while preparing the main squad for the match in the playoffs of European cups.
Positive results of the middle peasant after winning the cup
This aspect applies exclusively to fights in local cups, where teams like to achieve results. Especially if we talk about weak teams, or middle peasants who prefer to play as much as possible in the cup, trying to break through to the next stage, earning in parallel additional prize money for participating in the tournament. And in the next fight, in the championship, after 2-3 days of rest, the team is simply not ready to fight and is trying to “dry” the meeting in order to cling to the points. Due to the lack of strength, the team loses points, as there is little time for a break, as well as the lack of proper rotation on the bench.